Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump are neck and neck in polls as thousands and thousands of US residents head to voting stations on Tuesday.
Each campaigns have been laser-focused on seven key swing states which can be prone to resolve the eventual winner: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Most US states lean closely, or at the least very clearly, in direction of both Republicans or Democrats. Swing states – often known as battleground states – are the outliers, the place help for each events and their candidates is sort of the identical.
However the states that meet the bar to be categorised swing states weren’t all the time theatres that witnessed shut contests.
Here’s a take a look at how these seven states have swung in earlier many years and more moderen elections.
Arizona (11 Electoral School votes)
The southwestern state has lengthy been a robust Crimson state. Barring Democrat Invoice Clinton’s win in 1996, the state persistently voted for Republican candidates since 1952, when it backed Dwight Eisenhower.
Till 2020, when all of it modified, and Biden received by 0.3 proportion factors over Trump, making Arizona swing state territory.
Based on ballot monitoring platform FiveThirtyEight, Trump is forward within the state by 2.1 proportion factors coming into into Election Day. However that margin – as with all swing states this time – falls effectively throughout the margin of error for polls. The state has extra Republican registered voters (34.7%) than Democrats (30.5%). Others are third-party voters.
Right here’s who Arizona voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Republican (51.0%)
- 2004: Republican (54.9%)
- 2008: Republican (53.6%)
- 2012: Republican (53.7%)
- 2016: Republican (48.7%)
- 2020: Democratic (49.4%)
Georgia (16 Electoral School votes)
That is one other southern state that often votes Republican however swung Blue in 2020. Since 1972, solely two Democrats managed to win right here: Jimmy Carter, who was from the state, received in 1976 and 1980, and Clinton received in his first election, in 1992.
Trump received in 2016 by 5 proportion factors over Hillary Clinton. However Biden flipped the state, successful narrowly – by 0.2 proportion factors – in 2020.
Democrats are relying on the state’s Black and immigrant inhabitants in Atlanta to assist Harris clinch a win this time, whereas Republicans are hoping that Georgia’s majority rural and white inhabitants will pull it again to their fold. FiveThirtyEight has Trump forward by 0.8 proportion factors.
Right here’s who Georgia voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Republican (54.7%)
- 2004: Republican (58.0%)
- 2008: Republican (52.2%)
- 2012: Republican (53.3%)
- 2016: Republican (50.8%)
- 2020: Democratic (49.3%)
North Carolina (16 Electoral School votes)
Like Arizona and Georgia, the southern state has sometimes voted Crimson.
Since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, solely two Democrats have received North Carolina: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.
Trump received the state in each 2016 (3.6 p.c) and 2020 (1.3 p.c).
He’s within the lead once more, though by a tiny hole – 0.9 proportion factors – in response to FiveThirtyEight.
One Trump marketing campaign official, chatting with reporters final week, stated it’s the “one state that might chew you within the a**”, betraying the workforce’s nervousness over the slim margins within the state. Trump has returned to North Carolina to marketing campaign nearly on daily basis prior to now week. A surge of early-voting Republicans provides the celebration some hope, analysts say.
Right here’s who North Carolina voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Republican (56.0%)
- 2004: Republican (56.0%)
- 2008:Democrat (49.7%))
- 2012: Republican (50.4%)
- 2016: Republican (49.8%)
- 2020: Republican (49.9%)
Nevada (6 Electoral School votes)
A small state of three million folks, Nevada enjoys a little bit of a bellwether standing: Barring 1976 and 2016, it has voted for the eventual winner.
Voting in latest elections has swung each methods, though since 2008, Democrats have received persistently. The state has a rising immigrant inhabitants and huge numbers of third-party voters who might show influential in shaping the result.
In a column this week, Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Impartial, predicted that Harris has the sting: “There are loads of nonpartisans who’re closet Democrats.” As of Tuesday morning, Trump was forward of Harris by simply 0.3 proportion factors, in response to FiveThirtyEight.
Right here’s who Nevada voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Republican (49.5%)
- 2004: Republican (50.5%)
- 2008: Democrat (55.2%)
- 2012: Democrat (52.4%)
- 2016: Democrat (47.9%)
- 2020: Democrat (50.1%)
Pennsylvania (19 Electoral School votes)
It’s the largest prize among the many swing states, with most Electoral School votes on provide. And lots of analysts consider that whoever wins Pennsylvania is prone to win the presidency – barring different surprises.
Voters within the northeast state had voted for the Democratic Get together candidate persistently since Invoice Clinton’s 1992 win – till Trump beat the percentages, and Hillary Clinton, within the state in 2016.
The state seems deadlocked now – and each campaigns held their ultimate pre-election rallies in Pennsylvania. Based on FiveThirtyEight, Harris was 0.2 proportion factors forward, coming into Election Day.
Right here’s who Pennsylvania voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Democrat (50.6%)
- 2004: Democrat (50.9%)
- 2008:Democrat (54.5%)
- 2012: Democrat (52.0%)
- 2016: Republican (48.2%)
- 2020: Democrat (50.0%)
Michigan (15 Electoral School votes)
George HW Bush was the final Republican to win the election within the midwestern state till Trump shattered predictions to win Michigan in 2016.
In 2020, Biden received the state again for Democrats, backed, amongst others, by the state’s giant Arab American inhabitants – the biggest in North America. However the neighborhood is now offended at Biden and Harris for his or her steadfast help for Israel’s brutal battle on Gaza and Lebanon, and plenty of have threatened to vote for Inexperienced Get together candidate Jill Stein, and even for Trump.
Based on FiveThirtyEight, Harris is one proportion level forward.
Right here’s who Michigan voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Democrat (51.3%)
- 2004: Democrat (51.2%)
- 2008:Democrat (57.4%)
- 2012: Democrat(54.2%)
- 2016: Republican (47.5%)
- 2020: Democrat (50.6%)
Wisconsin (10 Electoral School votes)
Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin had been a reliably Democratic state for a number of election cycles earlier than Trump breached that fortress to win in 2016. Earlier than Trump, Ronald Reagan was the final Republican to win Wisconsin, in 1984.
Biden received the state again, narrowly, in 2020.
Based on FiveThirtyEight, Harris is one proportion level forward.
Right here’s who Wisconsin voted for prior to now six presidential elections:
- 2000: Democrat (47.8%)
- 2004: Democrat (49.7%)
- 2008:Democrat (56.2%)
- 2012: Democrat (52.8%)
- 2016: Republican (47.2%)
- 2020: Democrat (59.5%)
