Donald Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris within the 2024 United States presidential election has signalled girls’s rights – particularly the best to an abortion – was much less of a key problem than anticipated for voters.
This was the primary presidential election because the Supreme Courtroom overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade courtroom ruling, which ended a girl’s proper to terminate a being pregnant. Trump has repeatedly claimed credit score for that 2022 verdict, which was made doable by his appointments of three conservative judges to the highest courtroom.
The Harris marketing campaign made a lot of Trump’s stance on reproductive rights in a bid to woo feminine voters, notably within the swing states. Nonetheless, early nationwide exit polls confirmed that Harris had gained the help of 54 p.c of ladies, decrease than President Joe Biden did in 2020 when he had the help of 57 p.c.
So what occurred to the feminine vote?
Why was abortion anticipated to be important on this election?
The Supreme Courtroom’s overturning of Roe v Wade in June 2022 was an enormous turning level for girls’s reproductive rights within the US and sparked an enormous backlash from girls’s rights and medical teams.
Overturning Roe had been a key marketing campaign promise that Trump efficiently contested the 2016 election on.
In mild of the uproar over the Supreme Courtroom’s ruling, Democrats anticipated the problem to loom giant this election, and Harris formed a lot of her marketing campaign round it.
How did the candidates marketing campaign on the problem of abortion?
Harris’s marketing campaign targeted on highlighting statements Trump has made about abortion.
For instance, one advert that the Harris marketing campaign ran near the polls was titled Punishment, referencing a press release by Trump earlier than the 2016 election wherein he steered girls who attempt to get hold of abortions ought to be punished.
Nonetheless, in 2016, Trump moved again from this place, clarifying that any punishment could be for docs performing the process, not girls present process it.
On October 29 this 12 months, Harris acknowledged that Trump would “drive states to watch girls’s pregnancies”. She urged listeners to “Google Undertaking 2025 and skim the plans for your self”, referring to a conservative coverage blueprint assembled by a few of Trump’s supporters however which Trump has distanced himself from.
This declare by Harris was deemed false by PolitiFact, a fact-checking outlet.
Finally, whereas it’s true that Trump and his Republican aides have been referred to as out for making sexist remarks about girls, Trump made up for it by strategically distancing himself from the notion of a federal abortion ban within the run-up to this election, stating he believed it ought to be for particular person states to resolve on legal guidelines about abortion.
As an alternative, he targeted on rallying help among the many working class by specializing in financial coverage as the primary thrust of his marketing campaign.
Trump’s working mate, JD Vance, in 2022 stated he supported a nationwide abortion ban. Nonetheless, in July this 12 months, Vance stated he was aligned with Trump on the concept abortion ought to be a problem that every state offers with.
If not abortion, what have been girls involved with this election?
In response to a survey of feminine voters carried out by the Kaiser Household Basis and printed on October 11, the highest problem that emerged for girls voters total was inflation, together with rising family bills. A couple of-third (36 p.c) of respondents cited it as crucial problem.
This was adopted by threats to democracy, which 24 p.c of respondents cited, and immigration and border safety, which 13 p.c of ladies cited. The identical quantity – 13 p.c – cited abortion as crucial problem.
The nationwide exit polls have been in step with this.
In response to a preliminary nationwide exit ballot carried out by information supplier Edison Analysis, 31 p.c of voters stated the economic system mattered most in shaping their determination to vote whereas 14 p.c cited abortion.
How did girls vote on this election?
Ladies did vote for Harris however by a smaller margin than they did for Democrats in earlier elections – for Biden in 2020 and for Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.
CNN’s exit polls discovered that Harris gained feminine voters’ help by 10 share factors over Trump. However in 2020, Biden gained their help by 15 share factors, and in 2016, Clinton did by 13 share factors.
Whereas Harris made slight inroads with white feminine voters, Trump nonetheless gained them by 8 share factors. Traditionally, white girls have voted for the Republican candidate.
In response to the CNN polls, Harris additionally gained 92 p.c of the votes of Black girls, in contrast with Trump’s 8 p.c. This was up from Biden’s 90.5 p.c vote share in 2020.
Nonetheless, the Democrats misplaced help amongst Latina girls this time. Harris gained 61 p.c of their votes this election – 22 share factors above Trump. However this margin was markedly decrease than the 39-point lead Biden had over Trump with Latina girls in 2020.
What did Harris do improper and Trump do proper?
Voters had extra confidence in Trump’s capability to deal with the economic system, and the Republican candidate ostensibly was higher at persuading working class and center class voters on his financial insurance policies. Harris then again, appealed extra to college-educated, higher center class voters.
White girls with school levels tended to vote for Harris this election – 53.5 p.c did so – whereas 64 p.c of white girls with out levels voted for Trump, based on a CNN ballot.
“The Harris marketing campaign didn’t essentially do an excellent job of explaining how her insurance policies would assist the center class, or a minimum of that message wasn’t actually resonating with a whole lot of voters,” Melissa Deckman, a political scientist and the CEO of Public Faith Analysis Institute, advised the Reuters information company.
Schultz added that this prompted Harris to lose vital battleground states that had persistently voted for Democrats earlier than 2016. “Harris misplaced Wisconsin as a result of she misplaced the working class and didn’t win girls, suburbs and younger voters,” he stated.
An early nationwide exit ballot confirmed that 51 p.c of voters trusted Trump with dealing with the economic system in contrast with the 47 p.c who trusted Harris.
An evaluation by the Washington, DC-based Brookings Establishment assume tank additionally discovered Harris had inherited America’s disapproval of Biden, which has grown throughout his presidency due to financial dissatisfaction. People have been notably displeased with Biden’s dealing with of inflation, based on polls compiled by the FiveThirtyEight web site. Since Biden got here to energy, shopper costs have risen by greater than 19 p.c.
The Brookings evaluation additionally indicated Harris made some improper tactical selections. For instance, her determination to keep away from media interviews when she first appeared on the Democratic ticket led to voters dropping confidence in her capability to assume on her toes, Brookings stated.
Deckman added that Harris’s alternative of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential working mate over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was one other of “a number of errors” made by the Democrats within the run-up to this election. It is because Walz didn’t assist Harris sway any swing states. Minnesota has voted Democratic in each single presidential election since 1976.
Is the best to abortion at risk within the US below Trump?
As soon as Trump takes energy in January, a nationwide abortion ban appears unlikely, however states might limit abortion.
Earlier than this 12 months’s election, Trump stated he would veto any federal abortion ban as a result of he believes abortion is a matter that ought to be left to every state.
As of this week, abortion is banned in 13 states below virtually all circumstances. In an extra 4 states, abortion is banned previous six weeks of being pregnant.
Some states place limits at 12 weeks, 15 weeks or 18 weeks or have longer gestational limits. 9 states and the District of Columbia place no restrictions on abortion.
On Tuesday, 10 states voted on whether or not to embed the best to abortion of their constitutions. These measures have been dropped at the poll by abortion rights teams.
Seven states handed the abortion rights amendments, paving the best way for abortion restrictions to be lifted in Missouri, the place abortion was banned below any circumstances besides medical emergencies, and Arizona, the place abortions have been banned previous 15 weeks. These restrictions will probably be lifted within the coming weeks.
The measures additionally handed in Colorado, New York, Maryland, Montana and Nevada, the place abortion is authorized however now this will probably be enshrined of their state constitutions.
Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota didn’t go their very own amendments, and their bans stay. Florida bans abortions previous six weeks of being pregnant, Nebraska bans them previous 12 weeks and South Dakota bans them in virtually all circumstances.
Nonetheless, The New York Instances reported on Wednesday that anti-abortion Republicans will place stress on Trump to enact a federal ban on abortion.
